August to October outlook for Europe and the UK



Probabilities favour warmer than normal conditions over much of northern Europe, including the northern half of the United Kingdom, eastern Europe as well as central and eastern parts of the Mediterranean. In contrast, probabilities slight favour cooler than average conditions over parts of western Europe.


There is a slight bias in probabilities towards wetter than normal over parts of northern Europe, including eastern and northern parts of the United Kingdom and also parts of eastern Europe. In contrast, probabilities favour drier than normal over much of the Mediterranean region and bordering countries.

Further outlook to end of December

The probabilities for warmer or cooler than normal conditions become more evenly balanced over much of the region, although warmer than normal continues to be favoured over the United Kingdom and parts of northern and central Europe. Over northern Europe and the United Kingdom, probabilities for wetter or drier than normal conditions become more evenly balanced, while probabilities continue to favour drier than normal over much of the Mediterranean region.


These forecasts are considered experimental. The Met Office accepts no responsibility for actions taken on the basis of these forecasts Weather forecasts provide information about the weather expected over the next few days. While it is generally not possible to predict these day-to-day changes in detail beyond about a week ahead, it is possible to say something about likely conditions averaged over the next few months. Seasonal forecasts provide information about these long-term averages.

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