IRI Climate Outlook EUROPE August 2003 – January 2004

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The IRI has prepared this experimental Climate Outlook for Europe for August 2003 – January 2004. Of relevance in the preparation of this outlook is a decrease in the probability for a developing La Nina event as compared to the outlook of the last two months. Neutral to slightly cooler than normal ENSO conditions are indicated in the SST predictions. Warmer than average SSTs continue to dominate much of the tropical Western Pacific and Indian Ocean (SSTs). These are predicted to decrease during the forecast period (August-January 2004). Warmer than average SSTs currently exist in the northern and southern sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean. These Atlantic SSTs are predicted to continue but weaken through the forecast period.

OUTLOOK –

This Outlook covers four seasons: August-October 2003, September-November 2003, October-December 2003 and November-January 2004. Maps are given showing tercile probabilities of precipitation and temperature.

August-October 2003 through November-January 2004

The following discussion briefly describes the probability anomaly forecasts:

Precipitation

Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast for very small parts of southern Europe during the first two forecast periods.

Temperature Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature are forecast for substantial portions of Europe during all four forecast periods.